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    ESRI predicts 17% unemployment next year

    By Noreen Bowden | April 29, 2009

    The Economic and Social Reseaerch Institute is predicting unemployment reaching 15% by the end of this year before peaking at 17% next year. The organisation is estimating emigration figures will be 60,000 over the next two years. The Irish Independent notes that the organisations cautions, “It would be wrong to call that a forecast. It is more of an assumption, because migration is so hard to predict”.

    The ESRI also predicts that the economy will contract by 14% in the three years from 2008 to 2010, noting, “By historic and international standards, this is a truly dramatic development. Prior to this the largest decline for an idustrialised country since the 1930s had been in Finland, where real GDP declined between 1990 and 1993″.

    The CSO announced today that the unemployment rate now stands at 11.4%, with 388,600 people on the Live Register.  This is more than double the rate of a year ago.

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